Saturday, May 1, 2010

Kentucky Derby Day!!!

Photo of "Ice Box" winning the Florida derby (#8)


Our new found friend and old time Panther Gap resident, Joe Erwin is as close to a horse racing expert that I know, but he didn't give me any betting tips. Being left entirely to my own hunches and instincts, I'm going to bet on “Ice Box”. With a name like that, he can't lose.

My wife is going to bet on the only filly in the race, "Devil May Care". After all, a filly won the derby last year.

Photo of "Devil May Care"

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

I don't think I will ever see a better race than what Mind That Bird ran last year.

Oregon

Ernie Branscomb said...

"Ice Box" came in second. After watching him run, he reminded me of "Sea Biscuit". He came from behind like he was shot out of a cannon. I can see why a person might get excited about a little horse racing. It looks like a good way to spend a lot of money!

Anonymous said...

I love your choice Ernie. Ice Box is right up you alley. I bet on horses at Ferndale and lost every time. I know nothing about horse racing and I just looked at the horses as I thought I knew a good one if I saw it. After two days of losing money I looked at the back page of the program and saw it was the jockey's I should have been betting on as they were the consistent winners, not the horses.

Oregon

Anonymous said...

Joe, I'm waiting for you to jump in here and tell me I am wrong about betting on the jockeys. Like I said, I know nothing about horse racing but found it interesting that some jockeys at Ferndale were at the winners circle more than any given horse.

Oregon

suzy blah blah said...

-the best way to make money is to get a tip from the backside, the stable side. I had a tip from a groom who was a very VERY good friend. A solid tip. I put 200 down on a horse that won going away at 18 to one. He was 60 to one in the racing form and he stayed around there on the board until the last couple minutes when they dumped all the money on him. He had an off key only once in a while jockey because that was the kind that was willing to pull him. The jock pulled him twice in previous races. That caused him to drop into a class where he could win easily. The same jock exercised him before dark so that he wasn't timed officially and pulled him in the official workouts. Thus he looked like shit on paper but he actually was a really fast horse. It's very hard to get real tips though. Next to impossible.

At the derby etc. at that high level, it's on the up and up, I think, but lower down, in the every day races it's very very secretive and shady. The owner didn't even know what was going on, only the jockey, the trainer, and the groom who informed me knew about it. It's a very secretive business. Most of the time i lost, wheeling daily doubles and in general betting just to bet. NObody wins on the front side, if you're really smart you might break even. But, people do make lots of money on the backside, having the inside scoop, they only bet a half a dozen times per year but they bet large and they bet near sure things. The thing is, getting the knowledge of what is really going on is next to impossible. My horse had a better than 50/50 chance but the board read 18 to one. It's a slimy dirty business. Everybody talks out of the side of there mouth and there eyes slant sideways. I saw some others win on dirty deals too, but i wasn't in on it. It happens all the time but only a few know the truth. I once saw a horse who got hooked win, the guys who gave him the shot disappeared with there winnings. I only saw a little bit, the tip of the iceberg, but i realized what a slimy business it is.
It's fun though, i had a lot of fun with it for a while, my best of luck to you guys and gals betting.

Anonymous said...

Suzy, I don't bet on anything, that was just a fling in Ferndale. If you have lots of money I wish you would send some to me. In cash.

Love, oregon

suzy blah blah said...

Oregon, i used to bring the horses apples, they'd whinny when they saw me coming, it was a great time, the smells and the characters. Next time i bet a winner you get 10%, just for being you. But right now i'm not making any wagers. Suzy's in a terrible financial slump. I have bills upon bills and no real income. i'm just about flat broke. I'm starting to make beeboxes for sale. $300 a box if they're painted pretty with flowers etc., I sold some to a dude in Willits last month, any tips?

Ernie Branscomb said...

Suzy
If you think horse racing is dirty, you should check out politics.

On a side note: I know that you asked Oregon about how to make money, but I just wanted to say that money making opportunities are slim nowadays, and getting slimmer.

It is very obvious that you are smart enough to do anything that you want to, I would suggest something like writing a book. Do something that you get paid for MANY times, building bee boxes will get you paid for each box, only once. A book would pay you for each COPY sold. Or become a movie star, and get paid for each movie that someone sees. Don't bother making music. Any CD that you make will be ripped-off, you will sell the first copy then every person in the world will steal it from you. The world is no longer a moral place, they don't give a rat's ass about fair. We live in a “It's all about me” world.

I spend my life building refrigerators. I never had the time to do anything else. We are all trapped in our careers, and we all lead lives of quite desperation. We have no escape. The very rich keep us in our harnesses. The politicians are well paid to keep the rich in power. It's a lot like horse racing.

Now back to your career. As I said, you are very smart, but you need some “wisdom”. Wisdom comes when you know that there are some things that you SHOULDN'T do. I know that you know what I'm talking about. I spend a lot of time worrying about reality, and how things work. I'm pretty good at mentally following things to a logical conclusion, and associating the risks. My talk about “the hammer test” is an exaggeration, as I'm sure you guessed. I believe in many intangibles. Just as I wouldn't know you if I saw you, you have become very real to me, and the people that read this blog. Just as I instantly saw your intelligence through your sometimes disjointed ramblings, others instinctively recognize your wit.

The best way to think things through is with a very clear head. Find your place of comfort, away from any outside influences, stay away from any “mind expanding drugs”! Drugs are great liars, just like a lover that will tell you what you want to hear, they will give you a poor outcome. Open your mind and really examine your life, good and bad. Some would say “pray for an answer”. I would say look into your very own heart for an answer, all else is false. Seek reality and you will recognize it.

Reality sermon #1-A

suzy blah blah said...

-Suzy's mid-blog critique: one thing for sure, Ernie is a slick ass businessman. He's shy about it, and usually doesn't talk about it much hear. I guess maybe he'd rather not. But i wish he would, somehow. I, for one, admire it.

He's good at local history, which is, of course, the mainstay here. We love you for that. He has some strong opinions about it which make one think twice, or three times at least. He likes to blab on about politics, with which i think he's pretty right on, and he's trying to learn more about that dirty business ;) And he has a good sense of humor which i think is our connection and our bond. So, but on the other side, when it comes to metaphysical nonsense, like hammers, he's maybe at the best, okay. And when it comes to aesthetics, uh, i think Janis has a lot to teach him. I'm being real. But when it comes to straight out business, like selling and buying, like knowing how and when and what and where --Earnie, you are a very wise person, no joke. And Suzy has a lot to learn there.

what about beebox Tshirts? Bad investment?

Joseph said...

Interesting stuff. And guess what, Ernie? Ice Box was my pick to win the Kentucky Derby. I also like the come-from-behind style. He would have won, had the race been a little longer. He had some trouble getting his stretch move started. I don't look for him to win the Preakness, although he may get a place or show there, if he starts his move earlier (and if there is a fast early pace). I think he looks strong for the Belmont.
Well, one reason jockeys seem to win more often than specific horses is that they really do. Jocks can ride several races every day. Horses just can't run that often. Beyond that, hot streaks happen as a result of skill and, on the lower rung tracks, by design.
It is fairly common at lower rung tracks to see late career horses that run poorly two or three times and then win easily at long odds. I've seen this many times, and have sometimes bet and won on such horses. Most races are designed to be unpredictable. Some are manipulated by paying off jockeys to hold horses, and such. At the low end of the game, a lot of bad stuff happens. At the high end, there is less of this kind of cheating--but some tragic high-profile injuries happen, as we all know.
I'm not really an expert on racing, by any means. But I was around it a lot, more on the back side than the front side of the track. The horse I picked to run 2nd ran last. Had I been betting on this race, I probably would have put $10 on Ice Box to show, or I might have bought a $6 combination ticket. I've never consistently made money betting on races, but I very seldom bet.
I once saw a great old horse named Fujiwara win a long race at Ferndale (it must have been 1 1/4 or longer). This would have been about 60 years ago. I'll see if I can track that down.
My wife, Nancy, picked the Derby winner (but there were no bets). Jockeys do make a difference, and there is no question that Calvin Borel can ride effectively--and maybe especially so at Churchill Downs.
Warm wishes to all.

suzy blah blah said...

-btw, Ernie, i saw you at RR. When i went to buy my friend a drink, you were hanging out there behind the counter, i guess you forgot what i looked like cuz you looked right at me. You looked real straight among all the stoned out idiots. I guess you were maybe around on refrigeration business, and not reefer business like most everyone else. The beer was ice cold.

Ernie Branscomb said...

Suzy
I reread my "sermon". I apologize for sound like I disapproved of anything you do. I really don't. In my clumsy way I was trying to tell you how I find my way. My way won't necessarily work for everybody. I didn’t mean to sound condescending.

I also thought that “bee boxes” were actual bee hives. Making tee shirts is an ideal way to leverage your talent. If you make a silk screen and copy it many times onto shirts, you only have to do the art work once. Win, Win!

As you see, you are like I say, “very smart”. It is a good way to get into making a little money. But, keep thinking about what else you might do.

As a wise person once said; “Sometimes a person just wants you to know that they have a problem. The person does not want you to try to solve it.” That way all they have to deal with is a problem, they don’t have to be spending extra time explaining why you are wrong.

My wife says to not ask Ernie what time it is, he’ll build you a watch.

Wishing you well, and thank-you for being nice when I didn’t deserve it.
Ernie

suzy blah blah said...

I was trying to tell you how I find my way. My way won't necessarily work for everybody. I didn’t mean to sound condescending.


Of course i know that, i know my way is way different than your's. And you didn't sound condescending from my view cuz i'm too high for you to condescend to anyway, someone may look down their nose, but, haha i'm miles above them, (catch me when i fall). But what i'm saying is you were real, just shootin' the shit. I'm not clutching on every idea, or every inclination of the chin, of course not, we know that, i'm just encouraging you to talk, to open up even more. And, 'o' i'm trying to be listening to what you have to say', but that doesn't mean i believe it. Maybe Joe Blow has a point, "it's you that's the truth..." but the story, the story of the peep is always tainted, right outa the gate. You know that. And Suzy, Suzy is VERY taunted, no, tinted, no, trainwrecked, LOL! --what's the word, hummmmm, tainted. I should call my self Suzy Tanited LOL! ... I'm sure you're pulled from all sides. Your opinion is a balancing rod for Suzy, and sometimes in the stretch a good rider will know how to use the whip to win someone a buck, or two (two bucks is a larger truth than one hahaha). But, turn the telescope around --SIRprize it all looks different from over there, i mean here, there here, it's all good, right? but what about left, left behind, left out in the cold, too bad sucker, and the hammer i've learned the import of the hammer, the hammer is the key to the door of reality, so the big door must be the little nail, right? Very clever why to hide The Answer, why do you think Jesus was a carpenter? duh! Why anything. I'm learning, i'm studying the shit, the universe is one telescope with two peepholes, but the universe sucks, God should invent a multipeephole cewl lookin applicable telescope. 'o)
Spy, did you see that kaleidoscope slide they had behind Jerry back inna day, waaaay back inna timeless day? what was the name of that show? All these stats, all these different hats, but there all ONE that's the saving Grace, if you can trust Grace, she might be ripping you off, playing her game, waiting for her time. That bitch, where'd she get the nerve? anyway.